Today, on the back of unrealistic assumptions, unwarranted optimism, empty rumours and wild speculations, Tesla became the most valuable carmaker in the world (despite producing 300x fewer cars than its competitors). This inglorious folly won’t last and will make a great case study of market inefficiency and failure.
Most Tesla/Musk fans behave like kult/prophet followers - that is reflected in their rhethotic and the stock price. Even if it makes great cars, the bare fact is that competition is catching up quickly (Tesla is losing EV market share rapidly in EU) and its growth is slowing (only promises and rumours are still growing rapidly). And the current valuations are not justified even with very very optimistic assumptions. But that does not matter for fans, who have no idea what P/E or market cap is.
7 months ago·
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Mantas MikuckasCOO at Vinted / tech. investor / race driver and electric cars enthusiast
Seriously? You are well respected analyst in the eyes of public, are you doing other research and publications about finances and economy with the same depth as you just did here about Tesla? Or this is one time mistake? I’m shocked. Btw, I’m also part of kult/prophet as you say of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Alphabet for the last 10 years. Did P/E of Amazon made any sense to you 5 years ago? :) Does it make sense now? I guess not really?
I believe and invest in Tesla.
But 180B valuation in current economical situation looks way too high.
I think people are over-excited with self-driving and robo-taxi idea in a short term. Tesla and/or Vaymo will do self-driving, but not as fast as everyone hopes. I think Tesla have an edge over Vaymo.
Invest in Tesla for a long term 💪
7 months ago·
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Mantas MikuckasCOO at Vinted / tech. investor / race driver and electric cars enthusiast
Mantas MikuckasCOO at Vinted / tech. investor / race driver and electric cars enthusiast
If you are lazy do your own analysis, you can listen to someone who is working years on researching this company - https://youtu.be/47gW0XnOFq4
7 months ago·
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Mantas MikuckasCOO at Vinted / tech. investor / race driver and electric cars enthusiast
I’m over and out from this thread, sorry guys, time is too expensive for me. But I bought 10 extra TSLA stocks on Swedbank platform at all time high price today and will come back to this topic in 3-5 years with screen shots, etc :) Only time will tell who is right.
7 months ago·
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Gabija GrušaitėAuthor of Stasys Šaltoka, Co-Founder of Qoorio & Vieta
At the end of the day, everything boils down to predictions and no predictions are 100 percent accurate and safe from black swan effects. Who knows, maybe in the near future we won't be using cars at all, as we will witness the world at the brink of destruction.
While big boys argue who is the best stock picker I’ve shorted and covered Tesla stock already twice pocketing a nice profit.
7 months ago·
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Martynas Lapė on InvestingTech, investing and being a generalist - hit me up!Some time ago
Can you teach me how to invest?
Asked by Andrew Lim Mao Tung
Hey Andrew, I can support you by sharing how I learnt to read financial statements and create a story behind securities' valuation methods. But I would rely on people who spent time professionally and have the right credentials to educate about investing.
Here we go again.
Bitcoin cannot become conventional mean of transactions (money), because it is inherently deflationary (its limited supply means that it is better to hoard it rather than buy things with it). Fiat currency may be replaced by CBDCs, but not by bitcoin et al. Can it become a more conventional asset, aka modern gold? Unlikely, for many reasons. Most likely scenario is that Bitcoin will remain highly volatile speculative asset, until some some sort of regulatory clamp down or other mishap.
I agree on that it can't serve as a currency, partly because the primary value proposition - which as I see it is 'decentralisation', which is only useful if there is a lack of trust in institutions issuing fiat - is null and void, because I don't see evidence of a systemic lack of trust in issuing authorities. So this doesn't seem like a legit value offering?... RE the gold/commodity argument, maybe this has more merit? Gold has very little value in commercial use (jewelry and industrial use cases account for maybe 10% of annual production), and yet it's price in the secondary market is entirely independent of fluctuations in commercial demand. So it is propped up on 'belief' that it is an asset? There is little underlying value.. Surely BTC or the class as a whole can be a 21st century equivalent?
Bitcoin is on the rise again. Checked hedge funds performance trading crypto assets.
Main reason - funds could produce higher returns compared to hold strategies. Hedge funds are quicker to respond, can go long and short, most importantly professional traders are in place.
My learnings so far:
1. Hedge funds performance is poor compared to Bitcoin buy and hold. Funds act more like volatility reducing mechanism rather than added growth.
2. Performance exception is Quantitative funds. Positive returns even in 2018 bear market, lower returns in Bull market during 2019. On average - similar returns to buy and hold Bitcoin.
3. Bad performing funds just don’t survive long enough - thus data is hard to track.
4. Fair option is to buy and hold assets yourself. Or consider quantitative funds for more stability.
About report:
1. Only 2018-2019 data.
2. 48 funds included.
3. High management fees and possibly higher entry amount required.
4. Source: PwC https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/financial-services/pdf/pwc-elwood-annual-crypto-hedge-fund-report-may-2020.pdf
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