Bitcoin is on the rise again. Checked hedge funds performance trading crypto assets.
Main reason - funds could produce higher returns compared to hold strategies. Hedge funds are quicker to respond, can go long and short, most importantly professional traders are in place.
My learnings so far:
1. Hedge funds performance is poor compared to Bitcoin buy and hold. Funds act more like volatility reducing mechanism rather than added growth.
2. Performance exception is Quantitative funds. Positive returns even in 2018 bear market, lower returns in Bull market during 2019. On average - similar returns to buy and hold Bitcoin.
3. Bad performing funds just don’t survive long enough - thus data is hard to track.
4. Fair option is to buy and hold assets yourself. Or consider quantitative funds for more stability.
1. Only 2018-2019 data.
2. 48 funds included.
3. High management fees and possibly higher entry amount required.
4. Source: PwC https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/financial-services/pdf/pwc-elwood-annual-crypto-hedge-fund-report-may-2020.pdf
What statistical concepts should every person know in order to get a better understanding of social science research, such as economics, sociology, psychology, etc.?
As a psychologist, I see a lot of value in understanding the following:
- population vs. sample vs. data
- independent vs. dependent variable
- causation vs. correlation vs. regression
- moderation vs. mediation
- gaussian vs. bayesian statistics
Hope it's not to much. Thanks!
Asked by Povilas Godliauskas
Thanks for the question! This is a broad one. Let me talk about one point for now.
Binary outcome VS multi-option(or even continuous) outcomes.
We(people) tend to generalise everything to binary - yes/no outcomes too much.
1. Profit or Loss
2. Success or Failure
3. Happy or Sad
4. Political right or left
However, world is more complex than that. Thus we should think more about multi-option outcomes. Maybe this way we could better understand social phenomena and each other.
Want to generalise a bit on Marius insight.
Did society always struggled to keep people in charge accountable for their promises? Or is it just a recent trend?
It became hard to even remember promises due to increase in information overflow from web/TV. Not even talking about making someone accountable.
What do you think?